Foresight over hindsight: Using predictive intelligence to win

Unlocking Tomorrow’s Trends: How Crunchbase Predicts Private Market Success at Web Summit Lisbon 2025

At Web Summit Lisbon 2025, Crunchbase CEO Jager McConnell discussed the company’s pivot to predictive intelligence, now with over 5,000 private market predictions. This shift forecasts future events like funding rounds, investor participation, acquisitions, and business failures. The core value is providing foresight, anticipating “what’s next” rather than merely reporting “what happened.”

Mr. McConnell explained that predictions use extensive data, including current signals like increased engineering hiring, suggesting confidence in future fundraising. Upticks in investor activity on Crunchbase profiles also signal interest. Thousands of feature vendors contribute, integrating diverse data points such as founder profile updates and company appearances in investor searches for specific technologies.

This multi-faceted approach identifies “hot” companies and anticipates their fundraising, offering actionable, forward-looking insights. The pivot was driven by AI’s existential threat to historical data tools. Crunchbase differentiated itself by leveraging proprietary data, like user engagement, to provide unique, AI-powered predictive capabilities, an evolution over two years.

The transformation focused on answering the enduring customer question: “What should I be paying attention to?” Hiring specialized talent was met by offering access to vast datasets and a clear innovation roadmap. A remote-first policy and competitive salaries further expanded the global talent pool, securing top expertise for these advanced solutions.

Predictive intelligence also aids in risk mitigation. Mr. McConnell personally monitors competitors’ funding and pivots via Crunchbase. This competitive analysis helps businesses understand market position, identify threats, and make proactive strategic adjustments, minimizing losses. Acknowledging competitors and market trends is crucial for guiding successful paths.

Mr. McConnell warned of a “peak bubble” in AI funding. Crunchbase data showed 18 companies received about 40% of global venture investment in Q3, despite overall increases. This capital concentration in large, late-stage companies is unsustainable, signaling an impending market correction and a “wave of destruction” within two years. Founders must conserve capital and avoid the “AI bandwagon.”

He advised entrepreneurs to prioritize building sustainable, profitable businesses that cover expenses without constant fundraising. Excessive equity dilution for rapid, unproven growth often diminishes long-term founder returns. A slower, deliberate approach focused on customer willingness to pay and operational efficiency fosters greater success and resilience against market volatility.

Looking ahead, Crunchbase plans to predict real-time company valuations, moving beyond static last-round data. This will enable dynamic “stock tickers” for private companies and create indices to track real-time valuation trends in specific sectors like AI. This innovation promises unparalleled insights into market shifts, identifying emerging opportunities and potential downturns before they are widely recognized.