Beyond the Bell: Navigating the New Era of Company Exits
<video style="width: 100%;height: auto" controls><source src="https://d2qu7nggdaeihr.cloudfront.net/output/f9b5061e-ee77-43c1-b469-c0754cae3e5e-1794481421.mp4" type="video/mp4"></video>
<aside>(This article was generated with AI and it&#8217;s based on a AI-generated transcription of a real talk on stage. While we strive for accuracy, we encourage readers to verify important information.)</aside>
<img decoding="async" src="https://web-summit-engine.imgix.net/yusvkt8d8ot2hk5rtg2nk87n15hj?auto=format&amp;fit=fill&amp;fill=solid&amp;fill-color=white&amp;w=600&amp;h=600&amp;fm=jpg&amp;dl=Steve Vassallo.jpg" alt="Steve Vassallo" align="left" hspace="10" width="200" style="float:left;margin-right: 15px">
Ms. Lucinda Shen of Axios moderated a discussion on the dynamic IPO market, referencing Anthropic&#8217;s potential $1.4 trillion valuation and recent Nvidia news. Panelists Mr. Steve Vassallo, Dr. Ling Ge, and Ms. Sarah Kunst offered insights into the evolving landscape of company exits, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the current economic climate.

Mr. Vassallo, General Partner at Foundation Capital, characterized the IPO market as &#8220;bimodal.&#8221; He noted that elite companies, such as Cerebrous, which achieved the largest semiconductor IPO raising $6 billion, along with Anthropic and OpenAI, can still successfully go public. However, he advised other companies to delay their public offerings due to prevailing market uncertainties.

Mr. Vassallo predicted Anthropic would proceed with its IPO, likely accepting a $1.4 trillion valuation, with OpenAI&#8217;s public debut anticipated in Q2 next year. He discussed Stripe, an investment he led, which grew from $3.5 billion to $160-200 billion via secondary markets. Profitable companies like Stripe, not needing public capital, can use structured secondaries to provide liquidity and avoid the &#8220;organizational tax&#8221; of public reporting.

Dr. Ling Ge, Chief Investment and Strategy Officer (EMEA) at Tencent, presented a European perspective, emphasizing that exits often mark the continuation of a founder&#8217;s journey rather than an end. She cited Horizon Quantum&#8217;s NASDAQ IPO as a strategic fundraising method for long-term technology and highlighted Professor Alan Bradley&#8217;s serial entrepreneurial successes, where each exit fueled subsequent ventures.

Ms. Sarah Kunst, Founder &amp; Managing Director of Cleo Capital, described the market as &#8220;feast or famine,&#8221; referring to SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI as an &#8220;unholy trinity&#8221; of IPOs. She noted Anthropic&#8217;s initial $2 trillion valuation target seemed overly ambitious. Ms. Kunst also pointed to increasing global regulatory scrutiny on M&amp;A, yet anticipated a surge in large M&amp;A deals, exemplified by Groq&#8217;s acquisition by Nvidia for over $25 billion.

Ms. Kunst advocated for companies to embrace public offerings, citing benefits like increased accountability and crucial liquidity for employees. She referenced a Pitchbook Q3 report, which showed M&amp;A deals as the most frequent venture-backed exits that quarter. This suggests founders often weigh attractive M&amp;A valuations, including access to valuable compute resources, against the traditional IPO path.

Mr. Vassallo added that while M&amp;A is a credible path with &#8220;breathtaking&#8221; valuations, ambitious founders with differentiated technology in emerging markets will still pursue public opportunities. He cited Cursor&#8217;s $60 billion acquisition by SpaceX, which provided significant compute resources. Dr. Ge underscored Tencent&#8217;s long-term investment approach, which helps navigate the constantly evolving geopolitical landscape.

The panel concluded by discussing the emergence of future trillion-dollar companies. Mr. Vassallo confidently predicted another $1 trillion company from private markets within five years, and even $10 trillion companies within three years. Dr. Ge concurred with the $1 trillion forecast, while Ms. Kunst, though agreeing on the likelihood, expressed a preference for companies to go public earlier.

Beyond the IPO: The new exit playbook

The race for industrial AI: can Europe win?

Will tech save the energy sector or break it?